Report published in La Presse, June 26, 2010
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan - torn by ethnic conflict that has claimed hundreds of lives, Kyrgyzstan will vote tomorrow for a new constitution. An exercise in high-risk move that could make or break the provisional government in search of legitimacy. And raise a new wave of violence, says our contributor.
In five years, has Bazyl Abdyjalanov saw two revolutions to pass under the eyes. Tomorrow, the caretaker of the entrance to the White House in Bishkek, Kyrgyz government headquarters, will vote "for peace."
"I will vote for the new Constitution, of course. We will have peace and then the interim government will work, "says the sexagenarian. In March 2005 he was in spite of himself at the forefront of the "Tulip Revolution" that ousted President Askar Akayev, who was accused of authoritarianism. Then, last April, he saw the same way Akayev's successor, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, be ousted by a angry mob for the same reasons. Both times Bazyl Abdyjalanov took to his heels. As the presidents.
Bazyl believes that the Kirghiz "absolutely must participate in the referendum." Not that it's a big supporter of the proposed new Constitution - he has not read anyway - but because the mere fact of holding a democratic vote after a coup represents hope of stabilization its small former Soviet republic in Central Asia.
For the interim government, this referendum is crucial. Acting Chair, Rosa Otunbayeva no secret that exercise is his only chance gain legitimacy before the general elections scheduled for September.
Great upheavals
The two Presidents the country has experienced since its independence in 1991 have used their position to enrich themselves, usurping power and quell any opposition. Move from a presidential to a parliamentary republic would prevent the concentration of power in the hands of one man, provides the provisional government.
"The important thing is not what kind of republic we have, but who are the people in power, nuance, however, the Kyrgyz political scientist Nur Omarov. And for now, most contenders to the high office are former chiefs of previous regimes who seek to regain their place. This does not portend better days.
Moreover, since the arrival of the provisional government, composed of members from different factions of the opposition, several companies were nationalized in the country. "They use the same old mechanisms of hidden privatization (to enrich)," said Nur Omarov, who nonetheless supported the overthrow of Bakiyev.
political scientist and doubt that the interim government will accept the verdict of the polls. "I think they falsify the result if it is not in their favor. "
The two previous coups have shown that it is rather easy to overthrow the rulers with the support of several thousand supporters, even without guns. In the capital Bishkek, nobody does that another political group trying to seize power by force. If the provisional government loses referendum tomorrow, and its credibility, the chances of coup will only increase. Ethnic violence
The main concern for the proper conduct of the referendum, however, is in the south. Two weeks ago, violence between Kyrgyz and Uzbek minority claimed hundreds, perhaps thousands of deaths. Approximately 400 000 people, mainly ethnic Uzbek, had fled their homes. Most have returned, but many have found their houses burned.
Thursday, Kyrgyz security services have said they had determined the identity of the perpetrators of ethnic violence: Uzbek Islamist movement linked to al-Qaeda and Afghan Taliban, financed by the family of former president Bakiyev. The authorities said their goal was to Derai the referendum process so that the former president could return to power.
If the hypothesis of the involvement of clan Bakiyev is likely that the role of Uzbek Islamists is crazy, according to numerous testimonies collected by the press last week in Osh, the epicenter of violence.
Whatever the identity of the instigators of the troubles, one thing is certain: nothing prevents them to hit back and push a little more low Kyrgyz State to failure.
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